The regional turmoil and domestic ructions it has caused have clearly rattled Colonel Qadhafi. He cancelled his attendance at the annual African Union summit, an occasion that he traditionally revels in. As the focus of the regional disturbances has shifted to Egypt, Colonel Qadhafi has been conspicuous by his silence. He may be busy ensuring that his state security forces are fully prepared for any violence, but events in the region will also have forced him to think again about the likelihood of one of his sons succeeding him. Demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt have shown that citizens are adamantly opposed to any dynastic succession, a sentiment that is shared by many Libyans.

However, there are signs that Saif al-Islam, Colonel Qadhafi's reformist son, may be well placed to take over from his father. Cables from the US embassy in Libya, revealed by WikiLeaks, a whistle-blowing website, showed that Saif al-Islam's efforts to distance himself from Colonel Qadhafi's regime and promote himself as a liberal reformer have met with some success. One cable from February 2010 said that "young Libyan contacts have repeated over the last few weeks that Saif al-Islam is the "hope" of "Libya al-Ghad" (Libya of tomorrow) and that "amidst the Qadhafi family antics, Saif al-Islam has wisely distanced himself from the local drama". The cable adds that "Saif seems to be making progress in casting himself as a humanitarian, philanthropist, and reformer ... and domestic audiences-particularly among Libya's swelling ranks of young adults-may welcome him as Libya's knight in shining armour".

In recent weeks Saif al-Islam's charitable organisation and media outlets have came under pressure from regime hardliners (January 2011, The political scene), suggesting that his attempts to gain authority over the old guard have failed and that he has lost considerable political ground as a result. However, the wider regional tensions now give his reformist efforts renewed impetus, as hardliners will be wary of enflaming public opinion.