Although official data are not yet available, it is clear from anecdotal evidence that economic output has been damaged by the civil disturbances that have continued with few breaks since mid-December 2010. Production has also been hit by a wave of strikes and absenteeism and the removal from key posts in state industries of senior officials linked to the former regime. By early March many workers had still not returned to a normal pattern of activity, leading to appeals from the interim president for them to do so, to ensure that international market share was not lost. The Tunisian authorities suggested in February that growth in 2011 would fall to 2-3%, which the IMF said was a "very reasonable forecast". The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised down its 2011 growth forecast, to 2%, although there will be a relatively strong rebound in 2012 and 2013 if political and social stability is restored. Much depends upon the duration of political uncertainty and the likelihood of further popular unrest, which would disrupt economic output further and deter tourists and investors.

Some pillars of the economy have functioned relatively well during the crisis. Mr Nabli said on February 16th that the banks had continued to function and to respect their engagements, despite the arson and looting of 105 branches across the country and the vandalism of 280 ATMs. He said that the BCT had continued to provide the banks with liquidity and that the money market was functioning normally. Foreign reserves fell from TD13bn (US$8.96bn) at end-December 2010 to TD12.2bn on February 16th. However, the Tunisian currency had preserved its value.

Nevertheless, strikes and absenteeism will have damaged output in industry, although by how much is not yet clear. Retail distribution, especially in the cities, has been affected by rioting and looting. Tourism has been in decline since January 14th when many tour operators, beginning with Thomas Cook, ceased operations in Tunisia. Tourism receipts to end-February were TD190m (US$130m), almost 40% lower than at the same point in 2010. However, the French, German and British governments have now lifted their warnings against travel to Tunisia and the tour operators, including Thomas Cook, are returning. Many tour operators were offering cut-price deals to encourage tourists to return. British bookings for the summer were reported to be only 2-3% lower than in the same period of 2010, suggesting that the sector could rebound relatively quickly given political and civil stability, although it seems likely to contract for the year as a whole. On March 9th the trade and tourism minister, Mehdi Houas, moved to help the sector by offering to reschedule taxes and interest payments for hoteliers in difficulty. Remittances from Tunisians working abroad were TD274m in the year to end-February, just 8% lower than in the same period of 2010. However, remittances for the remainder of the year are likely to be badly affected by the civil war in Libya, from which an estimated 70,000 Tunisian workers have fled.

Revised trade figures show that in January exports were only 1.2% lower than in January 2010 and imports 0.5% lower. However, January exports mostly represent goods already manufactured and in the export pipeline; February and March export figures will reflect production losses more clearly.