Country Report Tunisia March 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: International relations

Tunisia's main Western allies, the EU, especially France, and the US, were slow to support the uprising against Mr Ben Ali. As a result, relations between France and Tunisia have been strained since the outbreak of the violence. However, the West has welcomed the transition to democracy, with the British, French and German governments lifting their warnings against travel to Tunisia. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a substantial amount of international aid to flow into Tunisia, with the World Bank, the IMF, the African Development Bank, the EU and Arab funds all promising aid to support Tunisia in its shift to a democratic system. In addition, the EU has said that it will finalise negotiations on Tunisia's "advanced status" application by July. The US and the EU regarded Mr Ben Ali as an important ally in the "war on terror" and will work closely with the new government to restore stability in the country, partly out of fear that prolonged instability would provide an opportunity for al-Qaida to establish an operating base there.

The new Tunisian government is likely to seek support from fellow Arab states in the form of aid and investment. However, the circumstances of Mr Ben Ali's overthrow could lead to some lingering tensions with some Arab states, in particular Saudi Arabia, which provided a refuge for the former president.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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