Tunisia faces a period of instability following the ousting of the president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, in mid-January as a result of a popular uprising. It is unclear whether the third interim government, which was put in place on March 7th, will be able to stem the protests. In an attempt to appease the protesters, the Ministry of the Interior dissolved the former ruling party, the Rassemblement constitutionnel démocratique (RCD), on March 9th. The interim government has drawn up a "road map to democracy", which should go a long way towards containing the protests. One great virtue of the road map is that it avoids a rush to early elections for a new parliament and president elections at a later, as yet unspecified, date. One great virtue of the road map is that it avoids a rush to early elections for a new parliament and president, thereby giving time for a fuller debate on reform of the constitution and providing political parties, most of which are new, with the space to organise themselves and make themselves known to the public. Steps have been taken to release the state and the economy from the grip of the RCD. Many members of Mr Ben Ali's extended family are under arrest and their assets have been sequestered. Former RCD members no longer form part of the government and are being removed steadily from the highest echelons of the civil service, state organisations and state-owned industries. However, most of the RCD members who occupy middle and lower levels of management remain in their posts, although they often face insubordination and recrimination from their non-RCD colleagues.

Much progress has also been made in opening up the democratic process, with 12 parties, including Hizb al-Nahda, an Islamist party, having been legalised since the beginning of the year. It is still not clear whether Islamist parties will be allowed to take part in the elections and, if they are, how well they will perform. The leader of Hizb al-Nahda, Rachid Ghannouchi, who has returned from exile in London, has been at pains to portray his party as moderate and committed to non-violence, democracy and women's rights. How to accommodate the popular appeal of Islamism is a problem that has beset regimes across North Africa for some time. In Tunisia, Islamists were conspicuous by their absence during the uprising, a factor that may have played a part in its success, as it deprived Mr Ben Ali of the opportunity to demonise the opposition by accusing it of being a front for al-Qaida-supporting extremists.

The army will continue to play a pivotal role in the Tunisian crisis. So far at least, it seems content to hold the ring for the politicians and to act, in the words of the head of the army, General Rachid Ben Ammar, as "the guarantor of the country, the people and the revolution". The army is likely to maintain this stance unless the security situation deteriorates markedly or the efforts to build a new political consensus collapse.