Country Report Laos June 2009

Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions

International assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
 2007200820092010
Real GDP growth
World5.03.0-1.82.1
OECD2.70.9-4.00.4
EU272.90.9-4.4-0.5
Exchange rates
¥:US$117.8103.496.394.8
US$:€1.3691.4701.3281.385
SDR:US$0.6510.6290.6640.648
Financial indicators
€ 3-month interbank rate4.274.651.401.43
US$ 3-month Libor5.302.911.051.04
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)72.797.747.553.3
Gold (US$/troy oz)696.7870.2895.8827.5
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms)30.929.5-22.43.1
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)11.2-5.1-40.014.3
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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Recent data suggest that the worst of the recent global economic freefall may be coming to an end. Nevertheless, the Economist Intelligence Unit maintains its cautious view of global economic prospects in the forecast period, with the global economy at purchasing power parity (PPP) forecast to contract by 1.8% in 2009 and to expand by just 2.1% in 2010. We have made a slight upward revision to our forecast for international oil prices (dated Brent Blend), to US$47.5/barrel in 2009 and US$53.5/b in 2010. A return of investor risk appetite and renewed flows of investment into commodities, including oil, have propelled oil prices higher.

© 2009 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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