Discussions among the nations making major troop contributions to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan have in recent months centred on setting the dates for the withdrawal of troops. After the Lisbon conference on November 19th-20th, it was clear that the original July 2011 deadline for starting to withdraw troops had been softened. Some analysts had criticised that date, saying that it was heightening short-termism among Afghan security forces and handing the Taliban a date for which they could hold out hope of "victory".

The transition debate has now settled on a phased reallocation of military resources away from areas that are deemed secure enough, and well governed enough, for troops to move in to support roles or leave the areas altogether. However, the troops will not necessarily withdraw from the country. Instead, districts and provinces will have increasingly fewer military personnel-although civilian deployments may be extended-or military roles may focus more on training and less on combat. Instead of combat operations ceasing in 2011, as was originally planned, they will now cease in 2014, and only then if conditions on the ground are sufficiently stable. Mark Sedwill, NATO's senior civilian representative, has warned that some areas may not be "transitioned" until 2015.

Transition plans may, however, be hampered by high attrition rates among the Afghan National Security Forces and gaps in leadership. By early November 2010 the Afghan National Army had grown to 138,164, from 97,011 a year earlier, and the Afghan National Police force numbered 120,504, up from 84,958 a year earlier. The training of the first 33,000 police officers took seven years; in contrast, over the last year 35,000 officers have been trained. However, David Petraeus, the ISAF commander, is still calling for 800-900 more trainers to be sent to work on specialised issues such as logistics, intelligence and medical support.