According to the IMF, real GDP growth (excluding opium production) is estimated at around 22.5% in 2009/10, driven largely by the performance of the agricultural sector and increased spending by the government and donors. This compares with a real GDP growth rate of just 3.4% in 2008/09, when economic output was curtailed by drought, which depressed agricultural growth. During 2010/11-2011/12 the economy's expansion will be supported by strong investment in construction (much of which will be linked to donor-led development projects) and by private consumption.

Industrial growth may also be boosted by improved electricity supplies during the forecast period. A transmission link to Uzbekistan has boosted power supplies in the Afghan capital, Kabul, and the rehabilitation of hydroelectric projects at Mahipar and Kajaki will provide further support to generating capacity, provided that rainfall is adequate.

Weather factors will play the largest role in determining the level of agricultural production, but harvests in 2011 are expected to be good. Cultivation of poppies for heroin and opium production is the largest industry in Afghanistan, although it remains illegal. Foreign agencies have led a campaign against poppy cultivation, but campaigns against poppy-growing will play a less significant role than prices in determining the mix of crops.