Afghanistan's most important international relationships remain those with the US and the other NATO states that are participants in ISAF. Ties between Mr Karzai's government and its NATO backers will remain volatile. Relations have been strained owing to the president's failure to tackle well-connected drug-traffickers (many of whom are close to his administration), his moves to assert his independence from his foreign supporters, and concerns about the 2009 presidential election (and now, about the 2010 parliamentary election as well). Continuing allegations of large-scale corruption within the government have further strained ties with the US. However, Mr Karzai has provided some sops to foreign pressure, for example by promoting more women in politics.

Most ISAF countries show no sign of wishing to disengage from Afghanistan immediately, but several have announced near-term deadlines for the withdrawal or transition to non-combat roles of their forces. Even the US's long-awaited announcement of a "surge" of additional troops in Afghanistan was accompanied by a pledge to begin a partial withdrawal of troops in July 2011 (albeit subject to numerous conditions). This contradictory approach reflects the fundamentally impossible task facing the US president, Barack Obama, who must try to reassure Afghans that the US does not intend to "cut and run", ultimately leaving the country to the Taliban, while at the same time reassuring his domestic constituency that he is not pledging an open-ended commitment.

Relations with Pakistan will continue to be vital in a number of areas, including trade and security. However, the Pakistani government's capacity to enforce its rule in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan remains extremely limited. Given the volatility of politics in Pakistan (and the outbreak of a new domestic political crisis in January this year), the fact that its government will remain preoccupied with dealing with the aftermath of catastrophic flooding, and the problematic security situation in the border region, there is a risk that the area could become even more unstable. The multitude of domestic problems means that Pakistan is unlikely to devote much attention to improving ties with Afghanistan, at least in the early part of the forecast period.

Ties with Iran, which have been warm since 2001 owing to Iran's historical support for opponents of the Taliban, will be more nuanced in 2011-12. There have been concerns that Iranian weapons are finding their way to insurgents in Afghanistan, and Iran has stepped up efforts to repatriate Afghans living on its territory. However, Afghanistan's trade ties with Iran are improving, reducing the landlocked country's reliance on Pakistan for routes to the sea.