Country Report Afghanistan January 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch

The next presidential election will be held in 2014, and the next legislative and provincial council elections are due in 2015. A parliamentary election was held in September 2010, and the results were announced in early December, after a two-month delay. Allegations of electoral fraud have been widespread, and some officials-particularly among the ethnic Pashtun community, which comprises around one-half of the population of Afghanistan but whose candidates fared poorly in the poll-have called for the result to be annulled. On the one hand, the results indicated that Mr Karzai was unable to influence the outcome sufficiently to ensure a more biddable legislature. On the other hand, the controversy surrounding the poll means that a new parliament has been unable to form. This is meant to happen by January 20th, but in early January the government ordered the establishment of a special judicial panel to deal with the election complaints. The court is supposed to issue a ruling within two weeks, but the time frame suggests that the January 20th deadline for convening a new parliament is unlikely to be met. Moreover, complaints that the formation of the panel was itself unconstitutional mean that the political crisis is likely to drag on for even longer.

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