Country Report Libya November 2009

Outlook for 2010-11: International assumptions

International assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
Real GDP growth
Exchange rates
US$ effective (2000=100)92.599.094.692.1
Financial indicators
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate2.180.250.551.50
€ 3-month interbank rate4.651.221.082.50
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)97.761.975.070.0
Gold (US$/troy oz)870.2960.21,043.8976.3
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms)29.5-20.92.7-0.8
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)-5.1-26.618.83.1
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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Our forecast for global economic growth has remained largely unchanged from last month and fiscal and monetary stimulus packages will continue to drive GDP growth. We expect world real GDP growth at purchasing power parity exchange rates to be 3.2% in 2010. The fading effect of the stimulus packages in some economies will hold back global growth in 2011, but we still expect it to rise to 3.4%. Our forecast for growth in the euro area-the main market for Libyan exports-is unchanged at 0.8% at market exchange rates for 2010 and 1% for 2011. We have raised our forecast for world trade growth to an average of 5.1% in 2010-11, as global trade has picked up, and we expect restocking to occur in OECD countries. Our oil price forecast remains broadly unchanged. Brent Blend is expected to average US$75/barrel in 2010 and US$70/b in 2011. The US dollar is forecast to strengthen from US$1.42:EUR1 in 2010 to US$1.40:EUR1 in 2011.

© 2009 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information