Country Report Singapore March 2011

Economic performance: New data show that GDP grew by 12% in the fourth quarter

According to data published in mid-February by the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore's economic expansion in the fourth quarter of 2010 was slightly less rapid than had been suggested by the advance estimate released by the ministry in early January. Real GDP expanded by 12% year on year in the quarter (the advance estimate had put growth at 12.5%). On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 3.9% in October-December, compared with an initial estimate of 6.9%. However, in 2010 as a whole Singapore still recorded its fastest pace of growth since records began in the early 1960s, with real GDP expanding by 14.5%. In mid-February the trade and industry ministry reaffirmed its forecast, originally announced in November, that economic growth in 2011 would slow to 4-6%. Despite the recovery of the global economy and strong trade flows in Asia, the ministry said that it was concerned about the risk of sovereign debt defaults in some European economies and of further monetary tightening in Asia owing to rising inflationary pressures.

Both domestic and external demand contributed to the local economy's strong performance in 2010. Private consumption expanded by 4.3% year on year in the fourth quarter, up from 1.5% in the third, taking private consumption growth in the year as a whole to 4.2%. Meanwhile, public consumption rose by 11.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 11.8% in the third, but in 2010 as a whole it accelerated to 11%. Growth in gross fixed investment slowed slightly, to 5.7%, in the fourth quarter, from 5.8% in the previous three months. In the year as a whole fixed investment expanded by 5.1%, reversing the contraction of 2.9% recorded in 2009. Net exports also made a strong contribution to GDP growth. In the fourth quarter exports of goods and services rose by 12.1%, representing a slowdown in the rate of growth from 19.8% in the third quarter, but in January-December exports of goods and services expanded by 19.2%, their fastest pace of growth since records began. Meanwhile, imports grew by 12.8% in the fourth quarter, pulling growth in 2010 overall down to 16.6%.

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