Country Report Singapore March 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Monetary policy

In order to contain inflation during the next two years, the MAS is expected to allow further appreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), which is derived from an undisclosed basket of trading partners' currencies. In pursuit of its objective of promoting non-inflationary sustainable growth, the MAS manages the NEER within a set band (the centre and width of which are also undisclosed), rather than using short-term interest rates as policy instruments. In October 2010, in its latest twice-yearly monetary policy statement, the MAS signalled that it intended to allow a slightly faster pace of appreciation in the NEER, announcing that it would steepen slightly the slope of the band within which the NEER is kept, while also widening the band. It is likely that the MAS will take further steps at its two policy meetings this year, in April and October, to strengthen the exchange rate so as to offset the impact of soaring global commodity prices on the domestic price level. Assuming that inflationary pressures subside during the latter part of the forecast period, the MAS will loosen policy, possibly reverting to a slightly flatter slope for the NEER policy band or again adopting a zero-appreciation stance.

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