Although the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) could face challenges to its authority and popularity during the forecast period, it will remain Singapore's dominant political force. Throughout its long period in government, the PAP has managed to deliver rising prosperity and promote social harmony through a paternalistic approach, and its far-sighted policies have contributed to the building of a successful and relatively harmonious multicultural society that enjoys a high standard of living, with good amenities, education, healthcare, housing and transport. In many ways, therefore, the Singaporean people have entered into an implicit contract with the PAP, according to which they accept the party's political dominance in return for a high standard of living.

The timely implementation of policies that limited the local effects of the 2008­09 global economic downturn, and the recent generous budget for fiscal year 2011/12 (April-March), are likely to have put the PAP in an even stronger position ahead of the next election, which is due by early 2012 but now appears likely to be held ahead of schedule. The ruling party will campaign on the basis that it has the experience and expertise to lead the country during bad times as well as good. Moreover, given that its political opponents are weak and subject to repression by the government, the PAP is expected to retain its stranglehold on power for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the electorate's disgruntlement about a number of issues could grow. An important potential source of popular discontent is the large number of foreign workers in the country, both low-skilled and professional. The government is trying to address these concerns: it says that immigration at current levels cannot continue, and has raised the levy imposed on foreign workers. The prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, has said that the government will "manage and moderate" the inflow of foreign workers. However, he has also conceded that it remains necessary for Singapore to welcome "hard-working" foreigners in order to expand the country's pool of talent and compensate for its low birth rate. There is a clear political aspect to this question, as electioneering by both the PAP and opposition parties has forced the issue out into the open.

The PAP has other weaknesses that could threaten its position. The prime minister's father, Lee Kuan Yew, the minister mentor, who has been a dominant influence on Singapore's development during his political career, is still a major unifying force in the PAP. His eventual death-he is 87 years old-could trigger change, especially if rivalries surface within the party or if the Lee family's political dominance diminishes. Such developments could also lead to a more meaningful debate about how much political freedom should be permitted in the city state.

The current leadership appears to be aware of the potential struggle that it faces to hold on to power in the long term: the prime minister has said that the main challenge will be to institute a political system that will function effectively for generations to come. In an apparent bid to respond to demands for greater political participation and to convey the impression that the government is in tune with the electorate's growing political aspirations, Mr Lee has overseen reforms which guarantee that the next parliament will contain at least 18 non-PAP members. The changes to the constitution, which were pushed through in July last year, include increasing the allowable number of non-constituency members of parliament (NCMPs, who are in practice the best-performing losers among opposition candidates) from six to nine, and making permanent the system under which there are a number of nominated members of parliament (NMPs) who are chosen for their non-partisan and alternative views.

There will also be an increase in the number of single-seat constituencies and a reduction in the size of group representation constituencies (GRCs) at the next election. The reduction in the size of GRCs would make the system marginally more democratic, as it would give opposition members of parliament (MPs) a better chance of competing against the PAP. When contesting a GRC, a party is required to nominate a number of candidates, depending on the size of the GRC (they all currently have either five or six seats), all of whom become MPs in the event that the party outperforms its opponents in that constituency. GRCs were introduced before the 1989 general election; the PAP claims that they help to ensure that non-Chinese ethnic groups are represented in parliament, as at least one of each party's nominated candidates must come from an ethnic minority, typically Indians or Malays. However, the opposition argues that GRCs are aimed as much at preserving the PAP's political dominance as at promoting minority rights. GRCs have often been formed through the merger of pro-PAP constituencies with a single-member constituency in which an opposition party has polled well, and no opposition party has ever won a GRC.

These modest reforms are seen in some quarters as an acknowledgement by the PAP that it cannot remain overwhelmingly dominant as Singapore becomes a more open and diverse society. But the reforms are not expected to loosen the PAP's stranglehold on power, as NCMPs and NMPs have only limited voting rights in parliament. Moreover, although the changes will ostensibly widen the range of opinion represented in the legislature, the PAP does not yet appear willing to give consideration to opposition views regarding the preferred direction of Singapore's political and economic development.