Outlook for 2011-15

• The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the People's Action Party (PAP) to remain in power during the forecast period. However, the party will face difficulties as it strives to maintain popular support.
• The next general election must be held by February 2012, but speculation over the possibility of an early poll has intensified. Whenever it is held, the PAP is expected to win a hefty parliamentary majority.
• Singapore's fiscal stance is expected to tighten in 2011-15 as the government maintains its countercyclical approach to policymaking.
• The economy is expected to resume a sustainable growth path in 2011-15, following a mild recession in 2009 and a strong rebound in 2010. Real GDP growth will average 5% a year in the forecast period.
• In part owing to recent changes in the policy stance of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (the central bank), the Singapore dollar will remain strong during the forecast period, helping to calm inflationary pressures.
• The current account will continue to post large surpluses in 2011-15, owing to healthy surpluses on the merchandise trade account.

Monthly review

• With an election expected to be held this year, the PAP had an opportunity to woo voters with its budget for fiscal year 2011/12 (April-March). The finance minister, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, did not disappoint.
• The budget contained a number of measures aimed at helping poorer households. Mr Shanmugaratnam said that families on the Workfare Income Supplement scheme would receive a "special bonus" payment.
• Real GDP expanded by 12% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2010. The growth rate was slightly lower than suggested by the advance estimate from the Ministry of Trade and Industry that had been released during the quarter.
• Inflation accelerated again in January, with consumer prices rising by 5.5% year on year, up from 4.6% in December.
• Singapore's tourism sector is booming. According to the Singapore Tourism Board, a government agency, the number of visitors arriving in the city state rose by 20.2% in 2010 to a record 11.6m.
• The balance-of-payments surplus (before official financing) rose to S$16.5bn (US$12.7bn) in the fourth quarter, up from S$6.3bn in the third quarter, taking the surplus for the year as a whole to S$57.5bn.