We estimate that officially recorded government revenue, which fell by an estimated 10.2% in fiscal year 2009/10 (April 1st-March 31st), will have risen by 26.7% in 2010/11, as oil prices and condensate export volumes increased and investment income rose. Current expenditure will continue increasing steadily over the forecast period, as will capital expenditure (the latter has risen sixfold over five years). Qatar's fiscal revenue will grow considerably over the forecast period, although well below the rate of the previous five years because of the relative decline in global energy prices. Officially recognised revenue is forecast to grow by an average of 4.9% between 2011/12 and 2015/16, recovering well from a large fall in revenue in 2009, but dipping at the end of the forecast period with an expected decline in oil prices. The actual revenue growth rate (including all LNG revenue) will be 5.7%. Oil and gas will continue to represent about three-quarters of revenue, although the composition will tilt increasingly towards LNG. We estimate that income on foreign assets represented around 25% of officially recognised government revenue in 2009/10 and is forecast to remain substantial over the next five years, providing something of a buffer for the public finances if energy prices prove weaker than forecast. Following the recent decision to host the football World Cup in Qatar, the government will focus much of its efforts on ensuring that the vast infrastructure projects outlined in its bid are carried out, necessitating a large increase in the capital budget towards the end of the forecast period.

Our estimate for the official budget surplus in 2010/11 is QR58.3bn (US$16bn), or 12.1% of GDP, based on a fiscal year average oil price of US$78.4/barrel for Qatari crude. However, most LNG revenue is excluded from the official fiscal account and, were this to be included, our estimate would be an even larger surplus of 19.5% of GDP. In 2011/12 we expect the surplus to widen to 14.8% of GDP on the narrow, official method of recording revenue, owing to increases in oil export volumes, tax revenue and investment income from the QIA. The official budget surplus will average 15.4% of GDP in 2012-15.