Qatar will maintain its high-profile foreign policy, spearheaded by Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem. By using its web of myriad (and, at times, conflicting) alliances in the region and beyond, Qatar has projected itself as an impartial mediator in many of the region's conflicts, often backing up its efforts with financial assistance. Although its mediation was successful in Lebanon in 2008, and its efforts in the Darfur conflict in Sudan appear to be making headway, Qatar's involvement in Palestinian affairs has been controversial. Its high-profile diplomatic engagement on multiple fronts also increases the risk of straining relations with allies that disapprove of its policies or feel that Qatar is interfering in their own spheres of influence.

Qatar will struggle to distance itself from the stand-off between the US and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme, not least because of the large US military presence on its soil, although it is unlikely that the US would launch an attack on Iran (although an Israeli strike is slightly more likely). Although Iran and Qatar have strong economic links-they share the giant North Field gas reservoir, for instance-and the emir has hosted Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president, several times, the growing US military presence in the region will inevitably affect relations. For example, in February Iran and Qatar signed a defence co-operation agreement. However, this appears to be of less significance than the earlier disclosure that the US had deployed extra missile defence systems to the Gulf region, including to Qatar. The emir once again highlighted Qatar's policy of maintaining close relations with Iran and the US when, in September, he called on the US to start talks with the Islamic Republic and, in doing so, attempted to use Qatar's unique position to broker a solution to the nuclear dispute.

In the past, Qatar has maintained some low-level relations with Israel, and it would be one of the first Arab countries to make moves towards normalisation, such as permitting the reopening of an Israeli trade mission (closed in January 2009 during Israel's invasion of Gaza), in the low-probability scenario that the Arab-Israeli peace process progresses. Relations with Saudi Arabia have improved, following the reinstatement of a Saudi ambassador to Qatar in 2008 after a five-year hiatus and the subsequent signing of a bilateral agreement. (A final border deal between the two countries is also expected soon.) Relations will no doubt be boosted further by Qatar's recent release of ten Saudi prisoners serving life sentences in the country. However, there may be occasional setbacks over the forecast period as Qatar pursues an independent foreign policy, rather than deferring to its larger neighbour.