Outlook for 2011-15

• The emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, will focus on economic and foreign policy issues and is unlikely to initiate any substantive domestic political reforms during the forecast period.
• Qatar will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy, maintaining a high profile through its mediation efforts in various countries. Balancing its conflicting relations with the US and Iran will remain the top priority.
• Real GDP growth will remain very high in 2011, reaching 15.8%, but will slow to an average of 5.3% in 2012-15, as no new major energy projects are planned over the period.
• The fiscal surplus (excluding most LNG revenue) will have widened to an estimated 12.1% of GDP (QR58.3bn; US$16bn) in 2010/11. It will widen further to 14.8% of GDP in 2011/12 and to an average of 15.4% of GDP in 2012-15.
• The consumer price index declined by an estimated 1.9% in 2010, but consumer prices will rise again in 2011, by 2.1%, as property prices begin to recover and domestic demand stays strong.
• The current account recorded an estimated surplus of US$17.9bn (14.3% of GDP) in 2010 and is expected to remain heavily in surplus in 2011-15, owing to continued strong hydrocarbons exports.

Monthly review

• In December the king visited Iran on a trip reportedly aimed at allaying Iranian concerns that Qatar would allow its territory to be used for a US attack on the Islamic Republic.
• The Economist Intelligence Unit has released its latest democracy index, once again categorising Qatar as an "authoritarian" state, although its overall score and global rank have improved slightly.
• Qatar's energy minister, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, has outlined plans to significantly increase the country's petrochemicals production capacity, to 18m tonnes/year (t/y) by 2016, up from 7m t/y at present.
• Qatar's Department of Industrial Development has commissioned India's National Small Industries Corporation to conduct a feasibility studies for 30 small-scale industrial units, in a new move by Qatar to promote SMEs.
• Qatar Holding, a unit of the Qatar Investment Authority, has signed a deal with Hochtief to buy a 9.1% stake in the German construction giant. Hochtief is already involved in several large-scale projects in Qatar.
• Qatar Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to build a US$6bn monoethylene glycol plant at Ras Laffan.