Lacking any better evidence than the unsubstantiated remarks of retired foreign officials who have unclear agendas, Mr Mba Obame is unlikely to overturn the general acceptance of Mr Bongo's victory in Gabon. Moreover, foreign governments have all recognised Mr Bongo as the country's legitimate head of state, so international backing for the UN leader's claim is unlikely to be forthcoming, at least explicitly.

Yet whether or not they are true, claims by former high-ranking officials in the French government that Gabon's presidential election was stolen-worse still, with French complicity-have real potential to destabilise the political scene. The legislative election due this year was already set to be a bitter contest between the country's two main parties. However, there is now a strong chance that the UN will either declare its losses to be the result of fraud or even boycott the poll altogether. Either eventuality would sharply raise the risk of renewed violent unrest in opposition strongholds, particularly Port-Gentil, where the most severe disorder occurred after the 2009 presidential poll and many French interests are located.

Equally, although it is too early to tell whether the legal challenge launched in Belgium will lead to anything constructive, it at least has the potential to keep the issue in the news for months to come. Furthermore, it could turn international opinion against Mr Bongo if it brings to light credible evidence of wrongdoing by him. There have been unsubstantiated local allegations that Mr Mba Obame's legal challenge is being financed by the EquatoGuinean president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who is of the same Fang ethnicity as Mr Mba Obame, unlike Mr Bongo, who is Téké. Although little more than speculation, Mr Obiang's well-known support for Mr Mba Obame's presidential campaign continues to be a thorn in the side of relations between Gabon and its northern neighbour.