With a seven-year mandate, the next presidential election is not due until 2016 and Senate elections are due in January 2015. National Assembly elections, however, are expected by December. Although the PDG lost only two seats to the UN in the June by-elections-the PDG defectors seemingly unable to transfer their personal support base-the UN may fare better in the 2011 parliamentary election. However, there is a significant risk that the UN will boycott the poll, given its claim that the 2009 presidential election was stolen, although this would make an overwhelming PDG majority inevitable. Yet if the UN does contest the poll, a good result is not guaranteed. Although led by several heavyweights, party cohesion is fragile as they have little in common beyond shared antipathy towards Mr Bongo: indeed, several leaders were until recently fierce enemies. Thus, whether or not the UN participates in 2011, the ruling party is likely to retain a sizeable parliamentary majority, particularly if it can co-opt the UPG. If this rapprochement fails, though, the PDG may try to tempt elements of the UN leadership back into the fold.