The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Gabon to remain one of the region's most politically stable countries in 2011-12, although a year after the election of the president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, many leading opposition politicians continue to contest his legitimacy. A particular threat, however, stems from the insistence of André Mba Obame, who leads the Union nationale (UN) party, that he is the rightful winner of the 2009 presidential election. We do not expect him to overturn the general acceptance of Mr Bongo's victory, either domestically or abroad, but his claim has been strengthened by recent unsubstantiated allegations by former French officials that the poll was rigged. Given the bitter relations between the UN and the ruling Parti démocratique gabonais (PDG), the likelihood has increased of localised unrest around the 2011 legislative elections. Port-Gentil, Gabon's economic centre and the scene of the worst unrest after the 2009 presidential election, is a likely flashpoint.

However, there have been recent signs of a rapprochement between another opposition veteran, Pierre Mamboundou, who came second in 2009's presidential election and leads the Union du people gabonais (UPG), and the PDG. As such a move would entail the UPG-the largest opposition party in the National Assembly-both recognising Mr Bongo's legitimacy and supporting his policy agenda in parliament, political stability would benefit as a result. Such plans, though, could be blocked by senior PDG members fearful of losing influence if Mr Mamboundou and other UPG cadres are offered government posts in return for their support. If a deal does fall through, Mr Mamboundou's credibility as an opposition leader will have been damaged by his willingness to negotiate with a regime he previously decried as illegitimate-which would benefit Mr Bongo. A rapprochement with the UPG would increase the government's support among the Punu-Lumbu ethnic group, comprising around 20% of the population and based mainly in the south-west, including Port-Gentil.

Mr Bongo will try to maintain the good relations with the armed forces that he fostered as minister of defence, to prevent them from becoming a threat. Corruption probes and reshuffles of the top military leadership are therefore unlikely. Army discipline is good, and the risk of a coup is low; the expanded French garrison in the capital, Libreville, will increase the deterrent. Nonetheless, the administration will remain under pressure to improve living standards; frequent power cuts and water shortages, decrepit infrastructure and inadequate provision of healthcare and education are both a drag on economic growth and a source of popular anger. The government will need to address these if it is to stem the rise in trade union militancy.

Balancing his desire to root out the patronage networks that marked his father's 42-year regime with preserving political stability, Mr Bongo will continue to maintain a careful ethnic balance in his political appointments and allocate state funds selectively. To achieve this, the president, who is of Téké ethnicity, will need to appeal to political leaders of Fang origin-Gabon's largest. The future of the Fang prime minister, Paul Biyoghé Mba, remains uncertain given the president's dissatisfaction, but any replacement is still likely to be Fang. Mr Mamboundou may therefore be offered a different senior role in any deal.