Outlook for 2011-12

• The president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, will continue to secure his rule over the country and the governing Parti démocratique gabonais (PDG), but grievances against his rule and reform programme will lead to protests and strikes.
• The opposition Union nationale's diverse membership presents a risk to party unity ahead of the next legislative election in 2011. The president's rapprochement with Pierre Mamboundou would set back its cause further.
• Turning Gabon into an "emerging" economy will remain the guiding policy principle, but success will depend on the government's ability to develop much-needed infrastructure and diversify into higher value-added activities.
• Real GDP growth is forecast to average 5.6% in 2011-12 as a new oil well comes online, following the estimated rebound of 5.7% in 2010, supported by public spending and sectors such as wood and manganese.
• Consumer price growth will become positive again after estimated deflation of 1.4% in 2010. External price pressures and a weaker currency will see average inflation of 3.3% in 2011 and of 3.2% in 2012, despite price caps and tax cuts.
• The current-account surplus is forecast to narrow from an estimated 11.5% of GDP in 2010 to an average of 13% in 2011-12 on the back of elevated oil prices and rising non-oil exports.

Monthly review

• A French documentary alleging that the president, Mr Bongo, stole the 2009 election risks stirring political unrest. André Mba Obame, leader of the opposition, Union nationale, declared himself "president-elect".
• Mr Bongo's position is in little danger, and he has denounced the allegations. Former French officials quoted have distanced themselves from the claims.
• Constitutional reforms were passed by an overwhelming majority in the national assembly. While mostly uncontroversial, the opposition did not secure a return of presidential term limits and second-round run-off ballots.
• Work began on a new hydropower dam in Woleu-Ntem region. Generating 40 mw when completed in 2013, it is expected to power 190 villages.
• In early January the government announced cuts to value-added tax and subsidised price caps on selected goods in order to slow the rise in the cost of living as part of a deal with trade unions.
• Shell Gabon and Sinopec's Koula field officially began production on December 10th. With recoverable reserves of 41m barrels, output is expected to reach 22,000-25,000 barrels per day, 10% of the country's current levels.