Country Report China March 2011

The political scene: Attention is drawn to the succession in Tibetan politics

The handling of the Tibetan campaign for autonomy has long been a challenge for China's leadership. Yet the Tibetan diaspora faces its own struggles in terms of maintaining unity-an issue that is receiving increasing attention owing to the fact that, at 75, Tibet's spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, is getting old. The Dalai Lama recently announced his intention to step down as head of the Tibetan government-in-exile in March, or at least to discuss the option with the parliament-in-exile. Rival successors to the Dalai Lama may well emerge. The new Dalai Lama will in any case be a child, potentially leaving Tibetans without a viable leader. One possibility is that leadership of the exile movement could pass to the third-ranking lama, the Karmapa, who is only 25 years old. However, allegations (so far unproved) have been circulating recently in India that the Karmapa could be a Chinese spy. Some have implied that his flight from Tibet in 2000 may have been aided by Chinese border guards. The discovery of large sums of money, including Chinese currency, in a monastery run by the Karmapa in India fuelled the allegations. However, the Indian government accepted in February that the money had come from donations from followers. Although a less unified Tibetan exile movement would seem likely to benefit China, it could also present risks if some factions pursue more violent resistance to Chinese rule.

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