Forecast summary | ||||||
(% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
2010a | 2011b | 2012b | 2013b | 2014b | 2015b | |
Real GDP growth | 10.3 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
Industrial production growth | 15.7 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.1 |
Gross agricultural production growth | 4.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Unemployment rate (av) | 6.1c | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6.3 |
Consumer price inflation (av) | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
Short-term interbank rate (end-period) | 5.8c | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
Government balance (% of GDP) | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 1,581.5 | 1,779.8 | 2,004.2 | 2,254.5 | 2,535.7 | 2,845.6 |
Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 1,327.5 | 1,597.0 | 1,814.2 | 2,072.9 | 2,378.1 | 2,695.4 |
Current-account balance (US$ bn) | 306.2 | 279.5 | 309.0 | 297.7 | 274.8 | 264.4 |
Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 5.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
External debt (end-period; US$ bn) | 400.7c | 471.2 | 533.9 | 610.1 | 692.5 | 788.3 |
Exchange rate Rmb:US$ (av) | 6.77 | 6.48 | 6.23 | 5.98 | 5.78 | 5.61 |
Exchange rate Rmb:US$ (end-period) | 6.62 | 6.35 | 6.12 | 5.87 | 5.70 | 5.54 |
Exchange rate Rmb:¥100 (av) | 7.70 | 7.91 | 7.69 | 7.39 | 7.03 | 6.72 |
Exchange rate Rmb:€ (end-period) | 8.93 | 7.68 | 7.29 | 6.87 | 6.64 | 6.51 |
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. |
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