China is under intense pressure from its trading partners, most notably the US, to allow the renminbi to appreciate more rapidly. As evidence that the Chinese government manipulates the exchange rate to support exports, critics of China's policies cite the country's rapid accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves owing to its persistently large current- and capital account surpluses. (China's reserves rose further in 2010, to reach nearly US$2.9trn.) The Chinese government is likely to remain highly cautious in the area of exchange-rate policy, and is not expected to bow to foreign pressure for a substantial revaluation. However, it will allow the renminbi to strengthen gradually during the forecast period, and in real terms the currency's appreciation will be faster. Despite the problems that this will cause for exporters, renminbi appreciation is desirable, as it should help to reduce the surpluses on China's capital and current accounts, which are contributing significantly to domestic and global economic imbalances. The average exchange rate in 2011 is forecast at Rmb6.48:US$1, and the renminbi is expected to appreciate against the US dollar by an average of 3.8% a year in 2011-15.