The current account is dominated by hydrocarbons exports. Earnings from goods exports are expected to fall sharply in 2011, averaging US$37.8bn a year in 2011-15, down from US$46.3bn in 2010. Lower oil production and exports in 2011-12 will be partly offset by higher oil prices on the back of growing concerns over the spread of political upheaval across the Middle East. We expect dated Brent Blend to average US$101/barrel in 2011 before falling to US$85/b in 2012. Goods exports will resume growth as the political situation becomes clearer, rising from US$22bn in 2011 to US$45.8bn in 2015. We expect imports to decline in the short term owing to the disruption caused by the political and security crisis, which will dampen private consumption. Consequently, we forecast that the trade surplus will average US$14.9bn in 2011-15.

The most important element of the services account is oil-sector payments abroad, which are expected to fall in the short term as a result of foreign companies pulling out and suspending their activities. We therefore expect the services deficit to narrow to an average of US$3bn in 2011-15, down from an estimated US$4.7bn in 2010. Owing to the dominance of oil exports, the current-account surplus will rise and fall with oil prices and is expected to average US$13bn (15.2% of GDP) in 2011-15.