The Libyan dinar is pegged to the SDR and is tightly managed. As a result, we do not expect a significant change to the official dinar rate, despite severely restricted access to foreign-exchange reserves. However, as of mid-March the exchange rate has weakened to LD2:US$1 on the black market from the official 2010 average of LD1.26:US$1, providing further evidence that foreign exchange is already in short supply. We expect the peg to the SDR to remain in 2011-15.