Libya has descended into civil war as pro- and anti-regime forces battle for control of the country. Political uncertainty will remain high for the foreseeable future. The first signs of a popular uprising emerged in mid-February when a small group of demonstrators marched through Benghazi. As the unrest spread rapidly across the country, the Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Qadhafi, responded with extreme force, prompting the UN Security Council to impose a no-fly zone in a mission to protect civilians. The balance of military power seems to be on Colonel Qadhafi's side, as he has retained the backing of the best-equipped elements in the Libyan armed forces. Even with support from international air strikes against loyalist troops and artillery, the opposition has failed to make significant progress on the ground, unable to take Sirte, a regime stronghold. At the same time, the no-fly zone has prevented Colonel Qadhafi's forces from advancing eastwards. The inability of either side to break through has resulted in what is likely to be a protracted deadlock, with fighting continuing in the area between Ajdabiya and Ras Lanuf. UN Security Council resolution 1973 does not rule out arming the revolutionaries, a tactic that may become increasingly necessary if they are to stand a chance of overthrowing Colonel Qadhafi. The NATO-led foreign intervention team has floundered in articulating the exact goals of its mission, appearing reluctant to confirm or deny the possibility of targeting Colonel Qadhafi himself. Without a clear objective, it is likely that the international mission will be protracted.

Failure to overthrow the incumbent regime could lead to the division of Libya along east-west lines. The opposition has already established an interim government-the Transitional National Council of the Libyan Republic-in Benghazi. The administrative body is chaired by Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, the former justice minister, who reportedly resigned from his cabinet position in protest at the excessive force used against protesters. The council has declared itself to be the sole representative of the Libyan people.

There are also signs that the Qadhafi regime could be weakening from within. Several senior members of the regime have defected, most notably the foreign minister, Mousa Kousa, and some army units have joined the ranks of the opposition. Colonel Qadhafi's children have so far remained loyal to him, with his second son, Saif al-Islam, long perceived to be a reformer, having assumed a particularly prominent role in publicly defending the regime. However, in early April media reports suggested that Saif (and his brother, Saadi) had put forward a proposal that would see him take over from his father and lead a democratic transition process.