Liberia runs a structural current-account imbalance as a result of the large UNMIL presence, which, according to the IMF, accounted for more than 50% of imports in 2009, and this will remain the case over the forecast period. Trade will continue to expand after recovering in 2010. Rubber constitutes well over one-half of exports, and commodities will continue to dominate export earnings, which will rise as large mining projects begin production. Import costs will increase in 2011-12 owing to capital imports for large investment projects. External debt repayments will be negligible until Liberia resumes debt-servicing at the end of 2011. Inflows of transfers will remain high owing to strong donor funding for the reconstruction of infrastructure and humanitarian assistance. Other than the UNMIL activity, fluctuations in the trade deficit will be the main determinant of the current-account balance, and we forecast a narrowing in the current-account deficit as the rise in export growth outpaces demand for inputs for reconstruction.