Country Report Liberia June 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Monetary policy

Liberia's monetary policy is ineffective, and the management of the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) has been specifically targeted for reform under the IMF's guidance. Given the high degree of dollarisation in the Liberian economy (the US-dollar component of the total stock of broad money was estimated at 67% in mid-2008) and its open nature, the exchange rate-along with other fiscal policy measures-has been identified as the main mechanism through which monetary imbalances affect price levels. The CBL's monetary policy will therefore aim to minimise exchange-rate depreciation to help to control inflation, for which it will need IMF support to raise the level of foreign-exchange reserves and help exchange-rate stability. Local currency in circulation will increase as the economy grows and civil-service salaries and other government payments are regularised, but this will be a slow process. The recapitalisation of the system will continue and the minimum capital requirement for commercial banks will be increased slowly from US$10m at the end of 2010. The CBL will work on the introduction of a domestic Treasury-bill market in 2011, as the government plans to start borrowing now that it has received HIPC debt relief. Efforts to strengthen the banking system are continuing, with civil-service salary payments in rural areas to be made directly, prompting six of the country's eight commercial banks to open branches up-country.

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