The ruling coalition will be in a strong position to contest the next national elections, planned for October 2011, although the opposition will provide a formidable challenge if they can overcome individual ambitions. The popularity of Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf, who will seek a second term with her current vice-president, has been damaged by allegations of corruption in her administration, although she still retains significant support. Her ruling coalition was also boosted by the merger in mid-2009 of her party, the Unity Party, with the Liberia Action Party and the Liberia Unification Party. The consolidation of political parties highlights the gradual maturation of the political process and has also been evident among the opposition.

The opposition alliances are currently fragile and it is unclear if they will hold for the elections. The largest opposition party, the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC), has elected Winston Tubman, formerly head of the Liberian National Union and a former senior UN official, as its presidential candidate, with the popular former footballer and runner-up in the 2005 election, George Weah, as its vice-presidential candidate. Mr Weah is popular with young voters and at the grassroots, while Mr Tubman brings professional experience, a seemingly complementary combination that will provide a stiff challenge to Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf.

Other alliances, including that between the CDC and eight other parties formed in August 2010 called the Coalition for Democratic Change, and the mooted merger between the CDC and the Liberty Party, led by Charles Brumskine, who came third in 2005, seem to be on hold at the moment. Overall, the Economist Intelligence Unit believes that, despite recent pledges, in-fighting within the opposition parties due to personal ambitions may well scupper the chance of a strong compromise coalition presidential candidate. We therefore expect the opposition vote to be split and forecast that Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf will prevail in the elections, returning as president with her party increasing its representation in the legislature.