Outlook for 2011-12

Support for the president, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, and the ruling Unity Party (UP) has dissipated over corruption scandals and a perceived failure to deliver tangible improvements in living standards. A cabinet reshuffle in November was an attempt to put a fresh face on a weary administration. However, unless the opposition parties maintain one of the newly formed cross-party alliances and rally behind a single presidential candidate, the UP and Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf are likely to prevail in elections in October 2011. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts real GDP growth of 7.3% in 2011, rising to 8% in 2012 as investment in the mining sector increases. Liberia will continue to run a large structural current-account deficit because of the heavy UN presence, which accounts for the majority of imports.

The political scene

The Congress for Democratic Change, the biggest opposition party, has elected Winston Tubman as its presidential candidate for the October elections, with its former head and runner-up in the 2005 elections, George Weah, as the vice-presidential candidate. A Tubman-Weah alliance looks formidable, although the order in which they appear on the ticket is surprising. More than 1.79m Liberians have been registered to vote, an almost 30% increase on the 1.3m who were registered in 2005. The government has not renewed the contract of the auditor-general, John Morlu, saying that he failed to respect the office of the president. Critics claim that the real reason is that he presented a significant challenge to some government officials who have been targeted by his audits.

Economic policy

The latest visit by a team from the IMF as part of the sixth review of the country's extended credit facility went well, with all monetary and fiscal targets being met at the end of 2010. The government has issued an Executive Order, which extends the suspension of import tariffs on cement and fuel with the intention of limiting inflationary pressures.

The domestic economy

The government has held preliminary talks with a Brazilian company, Vale, over the rehabilitation of the country's major hydroelectric facility, situated at Mount Coffee on the outskirts of the capital, Monrovia.

Foreign trade and payments

The government has issued three new mineral reconnaissance licences to a mining company, Adamus Resources, to explore for gold deposits. The board of the US government's Overseas Private Investment Corporation has approved US$90m for the expansion of a project that harvests unproductive rubber trees and processes them into woodchips for energy production.