Country Report Ethiopia January 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Monetary policy

In a significant change to monetary policy at the end of 2010, the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE, the central bank) said that it will stop financing public spending and that it will adopt a low reserve money growth target. This is aimed at tackling the problems of excess liquidity and demonetisation. Maintaining the reduction in inflationary pressures will remain the NBE's priority, and it will aim to do this by limiting money supply growth and reducing core, non-food inflation. Its task will be made difficult by several factors, including a lack of sophistication in financial markets, which weakens the link between interest rates and prices, and the large impact on inflation of exogenous factors such as the weather. The NBE has agreed to remove the limits on bank lending once low inflation looks as though it has been entrenched, but with inflationary pressures expected to rise, this policy change looks unlikely in 2011. The NBE will introduce measures to improve liquidity management, including an overhaul of Treasury-bill auctions. Foreign-exchange reserves are expected to remain at around the current level of just over two months of import cover, as the government prefers to spend resources on development rather than build up reserves beyond this level.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
IMPRINT