The ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is expected to remain firmly in control at all levels of government following its emphatic victory in the parliamentary election in May. The EPRDF has a 99% majority in Ethiopia's House of People's Representatives (lower house), as other candidates won just two seats. The scale of the victory resulted from the memory of the violent crackdown on post-election violence in 2005, along with the passage of restrictive laws governing the media, civil society and political funding. The possibility of widespread election-related civil unrest has passed and the hegemony of the EPRDF will ensure political stability throughout the forecast period.

The prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has agreed to stay on as party leader until 2015, and he will tighten his grip on power. His position has been strengthened by the appointment in September 2010 of loyalists as the chairmen of two of the four parties that comprise the EPRDF coalition. Moreover, the appointment of a new cabinet in October was taken as an opportunity to promote younger supporters to replace older allies who might otherwise have tried to position themselves to succeed Mr Meles. It is unclear whether he is strengthening his position with the intention of running for re-election in 2015 (he is only 55 years old) or to enable him to choose his own successor. What is clear is that Mr Meles is currently the only candidate capable of holding together the EPRDF's multi-ethnic framework, using his authority and force of personality.