Country Report South Africa January 2011

Economic performance: The current-account deficits widens in the third quarter

South Africa's current-account deficit widened to 3.7% of GDP in the third quarter of 2010, from a multi-year low of 2.4% of GDP in the second quarter, owing mainly to a rise in the invisible deficit (on services, income and current transfers). This reflects deterioration in the services balance after the World Cup, when tourism climbed, and a rise in income payments to foreign portfolio investors (in line with higher portfolio inflows). Exports (up 22% year on year) and imports (up 21%) both grew quickly in the third quarter, and the trade balance stayed in surplus. Comparing the first three quarters of 2010 with a year earlier, the invisible deficit was largely unchanged while the trade surplus increased, reducing the current-account deficit to 3.4% of GDP (from 4.4% of GDP in the same period in 2009). The gap is therefore much smaller than pre-recession levels (which surpassed 7% of GDP in 2007 and 2008) and remains comfortably financed by capital inflows. This poses a degree of risk, however, as portfolio flows can be volatile and short-term. Portfolio inflows surged by 79% to R118bn (US$17bn) in the first three quarters of 2010, while foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows slipped by 83% to R7bn (US$1bn)-although fourth-quarter FDI will be much higher following the acquisition of an information technology company, Di-Data, by Japan's NTT for about R22bn (US$3.1bn).

Current account
(R bn unless otherwise indicated)
 2009  2010  
 2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr
Merchandise exports (fob)a132.2135.8145.6138.6154.2165.2
Merchandise imports (fob)-124.6-132.1-144.0-139.7146.1-159.0
Merchandise trade balance7.63.71.6-1.18.16.2
Net services-8.2-7.1-3.9-6.2-7.4-9.9
Net income-14.9-14.3-11.4-11.9-13.9-14.8
Net current transfers-5.4-6.0-5.5-5.8-2.7-6.0
Net services, income & transfers-28.4-27.4-20.8-23.9-24.0-30.7
Current-account balance-20.8-23.7-19.2-25.1-15.9-24.4
 % of GDP (unadjusted)-3.6-3.9-3.1-4.0-2.4-3.7
a Including net gold exports.
Source: South African Reserve Bank.

Download the numbers in Excel

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
IMPRINT