South Africa's current-account deficit widened to 3.7% of GDP in the third quarter of 2010, from a multi-year low of 2.4% of GDP in the second quarter, owing mainly to a rise in the invisible deficit (on services, income and current transfers). This reflects deterioration in the services balance after the World Cup, when tourism climbed, and a rise in income payments to foreign portfolio investors (in line with higher portfolio inflows). Exports (up 22% year on year) and imports (up 21%) both grew quickly in the third quarter, and the trade balance stayed in surplus. Comparing the first three quarters of 2010 with a year earlier, the invisible deficit was largely unchanged while the trade surplus increased, reducing the current-account deficit to 3.4% of GDP (from 4.4% of GDP in the same period in 2009). The gap is therefore much smaller than pre-recession levels (which surpassed 7% of GDP in 2007 and 2008) and remains comfortably financed by capital inflows. This poses a degree of risk, however, as portfolio flows can be volatile and short-term. Portfolio inflows surged by 79% to R118bn (US$17bn) in the first three quarters of 2010, while foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows slipped by 83% to R7bn (US$1bn)-although fourth-quarter FDI will be much higher following the acquisition of an information technology company, Di-Data, by Japan's NTT for about R22bn (US$3.1bn).
Current account | ||||||
(R bn unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
2009 | 2010 | |||||
2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | 4 Qtr | 1 Qtr | 2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | |
Merchandise exports (fob)a | 132.2 | 135.8 | 145.6 | 138.6 | 154.2 | 165.2 |
Merchandise imports (fob) | -124.6 | -132.1 | -144.0 | -139.7 | 146.1 | -159.0 |
Merchandise trade balance | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | -1.1 | 8.1 | 6.2 |
Net services | -8.2 | -7.1 | -3.9 | -6.2 | -7.4 | -9.9 |
Net income | -14.9 | -14.3 | -11.4 | -11.9 | -13.9 | -14.8 |
Net current transfers | -5.4 | -6.0 | -5.5 | -5.8 | -2.7 | -6.0 |
Net services, income & transfers | -28.4 | -27.4 | -20.8 | -23.9 | -24.0 | -30.7 |
Current-account balance | -20.8 | -23.7 | -19.2 | -25.1 | -15.9 | -24.4 |
% of GDP (unadjusted) | -3.6 | -3.9 | -3.1 | -4.0 | -2.4 | -3.7 |
a Including net gold exports. | ||||||
Source: South African Reserve Bank. |
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