South Africa's current-account deficit is expected to widen from an estimated 3.9% of GDP in 2010 to 5.6% of GDP in 2011 as faster GDP growth sucks in imports of goods and services. Exports will benefit from the global recovery but will not keep pace with imports owing to fragility in key OECD markets. The trade deficit will widen in 2011. The far larger invisible deficit (comprising services, income and current transfers) will also increase. Service inflows will weaken after the World Cup while income outflows to foreign investors will rise in line with higher capital inflows. Current transfers will remain negative throughout the forecast period because of payments to fellow members of the Southern African Customs Union. Similar trends will be evident in 2012 as faster GDP growth-and South Africa's strong demand for capital goods-pushes up imports more quickly than exports. The invisible shortfall will remain large, leading to a rise in the current-account deficit to 6.2% of GDP in 2012. The picture will change in 2013-15, as a slowdown in the economy (and investment in import substitution such as oil refining) weakens import demand, while more rapid global growth and brisk demand from other emerging markets (including Africa) boost exports. We therefore expect the current-account deficit to narrow from 5.8% of GDP in 2013 to 3.8% of GDP in 2015.