Country Report South Africa January 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Monetary policy

Monetary policy will remain focused on trying to keep annual inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), within the official target range of 3-6%. The SARB's monetary policy committee has cut rates aggressively in the past two years, most recently in November 2010, when it sanctioned another 50-basis-point reduction in the repurchase (repo) rate to 5.5%, the lowest level for 35 years. Another reduction in early 2011 remains a possibility, depending on monetary trends in the interim. Policy may tighten a little in the second half of 2011 or in 2012 as inflation edges back up towards the 6% ceiling, making the SARB nervous, but rates will remain relatively stable throughout the forecast period. The SARB governor, Gill Marcus, will maintain a disciplined approach and there are no changes in prospect to the inflation target range. The SARB's mandate now encompasses growth and employment as well as prices, but this is unlikely to make much practical difference, as the central bank has consistently interpreted its mandate with a degree of flexibility.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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