The next key event on the electoral calendar will be municipal polls in 2011, by June at the latest, which will test the standing of the president, the ANC and the tripartite alliance, especially given widespread demands for improvements in the delivery of basic services such as housing, health, education and jobs. The DA, which won control of the Western Cape in 2009, is likely to make further inroads into ANC support, but faces the perennial challenge of attracting more black voters to build on its core of white and coloured supporters. The Congress of the People, formed in 2008 by ANC rebels, will lose support and seems likely to split because of a bitter power struggle between its two founding leaders, Mosiuoa Lekota and Mbhazima Shilowa. The ANC will convene an electoral conference in 2012 to select a leadership team for the 2014 election, but although some leadership changes are possible, Mr Zuma is likely to remain in charge (unless the local elections in 2011 are a disaster). The ANC, under Mr Zuma or otherwise, will be well placed to win another term in 2014, given mass support for the party, although victory would not be a foregone conclusion if the tripartite alliance were to break apart. There has long been speculation that the "broad church" will not hold and that the left will break away, leading to a realignment of the political spectrum and forcing thousands of members to choose sides. However, a split is unlikely, as COSATU and the SACP have consistently preferred to fight for influence within the alliance, while the ANC will remain reliant on their votes.