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Country Report Namibia March 2011
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HTMLEconomic performance : Central bank estimates 4.6% real GDP growth in 2011
The Bank of Namibia (the central bank), in its Economic Outlook published on February 23rd, forecasts that real GDP growth will slow to 4.1% in 2011. The bank's estimate of real GDP growth in 2010 is now 4.6%, compared with its previous estimate of 4.2%, owing to a stronger than expected rebound in diamond value added, which grew by 41% in real terms in 2010, after contracting by 50% in 2009. This contributed to a 32% increase in mining real value added, which will fall to just under 3% in 2011, as diamond output is expected to increase by only 2%. The growth of non-diamond mining output is expected to double to 6%, mainly owing to higher production at the Langer Heinrich uranium mine and the reopening of two copper mines.
| Gross domestic product | |||||
| (constant 2004 prices; % change, year on year) | |||||
| % of GDPa | 2008b | 2009b | 2010c | 2011d | |
| Agriculture & forestry | 5.1 | 2.8 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Livestock farming | 3.2 | 6.6 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Crop farming & forestry | 1.9 | -1.0 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 3.0 |
| Fishinge | 3.6 | -5.3 | -14.1 | -6.0 | -3.2 |
| Mining | 10.0 | -2.9 | -45.0 | 31.8 | 2.7 |
| Diamond mining | 3.6 | -0.7 | -49.7 | 40.9 | 1.9 |
| Other mining | 6.3 | -12.3 | -22.5 | 3.4 | 6.0 |
| Primary industry | 18.6 | -1.4 | -26.9 | 13.2 | 2.0 |
| Manufacturing | 13.5 | 2.1 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| Meat processing | 0.3 | -8.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| Fish processing on shore | 1.4 | -3.6 | 12.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Other foods & beverages | 5.4 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| Other manufacturingf | 6.4 | -2.1 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Electricity & water | 2.5 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 6.0 |
| Construction | 3.8 | 15.1 | -7.3 | 3.8 | 5.0 |
| Secondary industry | 19.7 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Trade | 11.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Hotels & restaurants | 1.9 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| Transport & communication | 4.8 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 5.7 |
| Financial intermediation | 4.2 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| Real estate & business services | 7.7 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| Governmentg | 21.1 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Othersh | 3.8 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Tertiary industry | 54.6 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| All industries at basic pricesi | 91.7 | 4.3 | -1.2 | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| GDP at market pricesj | 100.0 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| a In 2009 at current prices. b Actual, c Estimates. d Projected. e Includes on-board fish processing. f Includes copper smelting, zinc refining, diamond cutting and export-processing zone output. g Public administration and defence, education and health. h Community, social and personal services, households with private employees. i After allowing for subtraction of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (1.2% of GDP in 2009). j After allowing for taxes less subsidies on products (8.3% of GDP in 2009). | |||||
| Source: Bank of Namibia, Economic Outlook February 2011. | |||||
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Agricultural output is forecast to grow more strongly in 2011, owing to higher livestock and horticultural production, thanks to good rainfall in the 2010/11 wet season and increased crop irrigation, but fishing output will continue to contract. Although both stock levels and landings have increased, the recovery of demand in the sector's European markets is expected to be offset by the Namibia dollar's current strength. In consequence, the primary sector will grow by only 2% overall, compared with 13% in 2010.
Real growth of 5.8% in the secondary sector, will be the result of higher output in the manufacturing, construction, and electricity and water sub-sectors. Increased processing of food products and copper and the start of production at the Ohorongo cement works are expected to be the main contributors to higher manufacturing output. Tertiary sector output is also projected to expand modestly, to just under 4%, reflecting stronger output by hotels and restaurants (a proxy for the tourism industry) along with transport and communications, and more modest expansion by wholesale and retail trade, financial services, and real estate and business.
