Namibia's share of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenue pool could fall from 15% to 9% if recommended changes to the revenue-sharing formula are implemented by the SACU secretariat. A leaked report by the Centre for International Economics, an Australian consultancy firm, also proposes lower payments to Botswana and Swaziland, whereas those to Lesotho and South Africa would rise. The prospect of sharply reduced SACU receipts will increase pressure on the minister of finance, Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila, to identify additional revenue sources in the 2011/12 budget to be presented on March 8th. SACU receipts were expected to contribute 27% of total revenue in fiscal year 2010/11 (April-March), compared with 36% in the previous year, and under the current medium-term expenditure forecast (MTEF) are projected to fall to 14% in 2011/12, owing to the impact of the 2008-09 recession on SACU trade with the rest of the world (April 2010, Economic policy).

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The draft report was discussed by the five SACU members on January 21st and was expected to be finalised and disseminated at the end of February. This will be just the first phase of negotiations about a revised revenue-sharing formula, and these are likely to be prolonged and acrimonious. South Africa is no longer willing to continue making large transfers to other SACU members, whereas the latter believe that they should continue to be compensated for the alleged de-industrialisation caused by free trade with the dominant regional economy. Namibia's deputy minister of finance, Calle Schlettwein, has already registered the government's opposition to the proposed changes, warning that these would polarise SACU and have "very serious" political implications. In early February Mr Schlettwein said that no country should be worse off under any new revenue-sharing formula. However, he added, Namibia was keeping its options open and would study the report before deciding on a course of action.