Country Report Pakistan April 2011

Economic policy: The central bank keeps interest rates on hold

In its most recent monetary policy statement, which was released on March 26th, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP, the central bank) announced that the benchmark interest rate, the discount rate, would remain unchanged, at 14%. The governor of the SBP, Shahid Kardar, argued that keeping rates on hold would strike the right balance between taming inflation and boosting GDP growth given that immediate threats to the macroeconomic environment have subsided. However, the SBP said that the stabilisation of the macroeconomic environment could be assumed only for the next two months, and noted specifically that "there is little room for complacency as the risks to the economy may increase if meaningful economic reforms are not initiated to address the structural weaknesses".

Foremost among these structural weaknesses is the fiscal position. The SBP noted that government borrowing from the central bank had moderated, and expressed confidence that officials would keep to the borrowing limits agreed between them and the SBP. However, the SBP called for "implementation of a credible medium-term budgetary framework and renewed efforts to abide by the principles of the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act (2005)" to ensure than fiscal consolidation is sustainable. Year-on-year growth in public debt was 14.8% in 2010, and nearly one-half (45%) of total tax revenue is being used for interest payments on debt. Once public-sector salaries and pensions are added to the fiscal burden, this leaves little room for any public investment or development spending.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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