Country Report Pakistan April 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Inflation

Consumer price inflation stood at 12.9% year on year in February-the 38th consecutive month (with one exception) in which prices have risen at double-digit rates. Inflation will remain elevated in coming months, as the floods destroyed an estimated 10-15% of farmland as well as grain-storage facilities, thereby generating supply-side pressures. More broadly, upside inflationary pressures abound; they include rising international commodity prices, the depreciation of the Pakistan rupee against the US dollar, the fuel-price rise announced in early March and the widening fiscal deficit, which has led to a resurgence in government borrowing from the central bank. However, the government's postponement of the introduction of the RGST will temper inflationary pressures somewhat. We forecast consumer price inflation at 10.2% in 2011, down from 13.9% in 2010. Inflation should then moderate, to average 6.9% in 2012-15.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
IMPRINT