Country Report India January 2011

The political scene: Congress's strategy in Bihar fails

The state assembly election in the eastern state of Bihar in October-November resulted in a landslide victory for the existing government, a coalition led by the Janata Dal (United), or JD (U)-led by the chief minister of the state, Nitish Kumar-and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The coalition won 206 seats in the 243-strong assembly. The main opposition parties, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Lok Janshakti Party, won a total of 25 seats between them.

The biggest loser was the Indian National Congress party, which won just four seats, down from nine at the previous state election. The party's hopes of regaining the ground that it has lost to the BJP and to various regional and caste-based parties in the past 25 years were not fulfilled. Rahul Gandhi, the son of the Congress party president, Sonia Gandhi, campaigned hard but failed to turn the party's fortunes around. At national level, Mr Gandhi is still tipped to be Congress's next prime ministerial candidate. The litmus test for his ambitions will be the state assembly election this year in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, the political home of the Gandhi dynasty (both Mr Gandhi's and his mother's constituencies are in Uttar Pradesh) and India's biggest and politically most important state. There is little doubt that Mr Gandhi would become prime minister in the future were Congress to win a majority there, as such a victory would deliver a powerful boost to his credentials and credibility.

The BJP was pleased with its performance in the Bihar poll, in which it won 81 seats, but without the JD(U), its popular coalition partner, it would not have done so well. The election result was seen as a vote for development and improved governance-Mr Kumar's main campaign issues, and areas in which his government achieved success during its previous term. The public works programmes, upgraded transport infrastructure, and improved law and order that the coalition in Bihar has delivered have proved popular. This is in sharp contrast to the previous 15 years, during which the RJD's Lalu Prasad Yadav and later his wife, Rabri Devi, ruled the state as their personal fiefdom, promising empowerment for backward classes but doing little in practice to improve the welfare of the local population. Mr Kumar's victory does not necessarily mean an end to the politics of caste, although some commentators have suggested that this could happen. Since coming to power in Bihar the JD (U) has introduced "reservations" (essentially, quotas) for minority and underprivileged groups and has targeted welfare measures towards so-called backward communities.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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