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Country Report India January 2011
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HTMLOutlook for 2011-15: Quarterly forecasts
| Quarterly forecasts | ||||||||||||
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||||||
| 1 Qtr | 2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | 4 Qtr | 1 Qtr | 2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | 4 Qtr | 1 Qtr | 2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | 4 Qtr | |
| GDP | ||||||||||||
| % change, quarter on quarter | 7.8 | -10.6 | 2.3 | 10.2 | 8.1 | -9.4 | 1.9 | 10.4 | 4.0 | -8.6 | 2.9 | 11.6 |
| % change, year on year | 11.2 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 9.1 |
| Private consumption | ||||||||||||
| % change, quarter on quarter | -8.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 6.4 | -1.0 | -2.9 | 10.6 | -4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 13.2 |
| % change, year on year | 2.6 | 7.8 | 9.3 | -0.9 | 15.5 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 13.0 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 9.6 |
| Government consumption | ||||||||||||
| % change, quarter on quarter | -7.9 | -9.6 | 1.0 | 11.7 | 33.1 | -21.7 | -9.5 | 17.4 | 24.0 | -20.2 | -7.7 | 19.8 |
| % change, year on year | 2.1 | 9.0 | 9.2 | -6.0 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 5.4 | 10.8 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 9.5 |
| Gross fixed investment | ||||||||||||
| % change, quarter on quarter | 16.9 | -9.6 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 11.3 | -8.6 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 7.9 | -8.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 |
| % change, year on year | 17.7 | 19.0 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 14.2 | 13.6 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 12.1 |
| Exports of goods & services | ||||||||||||
| % change, quarter on quarter | 21.9 | -11.3 | 2.2 | 11.7 | 11.5 | -6.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 9.3 | -4.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| % change, year on year | 14.2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 23.5 | 13.0 | 18.5 | 18.4 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 14.3 |
| Imports of goods & services | ||||||||||||
| % change, quarter on quarter | -10.9 | 14.1 | 5.9 | -0.6 | -2.7 | 3.6 | 15.0 | -0.8 | -4.8 | 3.7 | 15.1 | -0.6 |
| % change, year on year | -3.7 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 16.9 | 6.2 | 15.2 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 13.0 |
| Domestic demand | ||||||||||||
| % change, quarter on quarter | -0.8 | -1.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 11.0 | -6.4 | -0.3 | 8.8 | 2.8 | -5.0 | 2.0 | 10.7 |
| % change, year on year | 7.5 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 14.2 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 10.3 |
| Consumer prices | ||||||||||||
| % change, quarter on quarter | 2.0 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| % change, year on year | 15.1 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.4 |
| Producer prices | ||||||||||||
| % change, quarter on quarter | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| % change, year on year | 9.5 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| Exchange rate Rs:US$ | ||||||||||||
| Average | 45.93 | 45.63 | 46.49 | 44.90 | 44.82 | 45.01 | 45.25 | 45.48 | 45.09 | 44.69 | 44.26 | 43.84 |
| End-period | 45.14 | 46.60 | 44.92 | 44.86 | 44.92 | 45.13 | 45.36 | 45.29 | 44.89 | 44.48 | 44.05 | 43.77 |
| Interest rates (%; av) | ||||||||||||
| Money market rate | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
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