The UPA does not face any immediate electoral threat, and the Economist Intelligence Unit still expects it to complete its current five-year term. Mr Singh will continue as prime minister for the time being, although it is likely that Congress leaders will eventually clear the way for Rahul Gandhi, the son of the party's president, Sonia Gandhi, to take over. The next general election must take place by May 2014 and is all but certain to result in another coalition government.

India's schedule of state assembly elections resumed in October, with the six rounds of voting in the state of Bihar completed on November 20th. Congress performed poorly in the poll, losing five seats in the state legislature. The biggest electoral prize, however, is Uttar Pradesh, India's most important state politically. Assembly polls there are not due until 2012. The Bharatiya Janata Party (the main opposition party at national level) and the Samajwadi Party are in decline in the state. Congress, which has not been a significant force in Uttar Pradesh since the early 1990s, hopes to regain power there or at least to come second behind the Bahujan Samaj Party.