The president, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, will remain firmly in control of the government, but her popularity will decline over corruption scandals and stagnating living standards. Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf is a strong leader who has significant international support for the rebuilding of post-civil war Liberia. Her government faces an immense task in consolidating peace and democracy, as well as in the reconstruction and development of the economy. Support for Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf has lessened since she came to power because of her perceived failure to deliver tangible improvements in the standard of living. A cabinet reshuffle at the end of 2010 was an attempt to put a fresh face on a weary administration. Patience with the government is also wearing thin because of the lack of progress in curbing fraud or prosecuting those accused of graft. Mindful of this, the government will give the appearance of stepping up its efforts, prioritising judicial reform and improving the implementation of existing mechanisms, although high-level prosecutions are unlikely.

The presence of a peacekeeping force, the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), will remain crucial for the maintenance of stability. The mandate of the 8,000 military personnel has been extended to the end of September 2011 and no drawdowns are planned before the elections in October 2011. The UN is concerned about the capacity of local forces to take over from UNMIL, although reports that violent crime has fallen suggest that there has been some progress in the army and police force. However, there are concerns about the threat to regional stability. Although more than 100,000 former combatants have been disarmed, many who lack an alternative livelihood will be tempted to form or join regional militias or take up looting and banditry. These risks have been heightened by unrest in neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire following a disputed presidential election, with reports that former members of two Liberian factions, Movement for Democracy and the National Patriotic Front of Liberia, based in the north and east of the country, have been recruited by Ivorian forces. A coup attempt by former army personnel remains a risk, although the UN troops would be able to counter such a move. UNMIL forces are highly unlikely to be withdrawn if Liberia is deemed to be facing any immediate major security threat.