Country Report Uganda March 2010

Outlook for 2010-11: International assumptions

International assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
 2008200920102011
Real GDP growth
World2.8-0.93.73.5
OECD0.5-3.42.01.6
EU270.7-4.10.91.1
Exchange rates
¥:US$103.493.788.087.0
US$:€1.4701.3931.3451.368
SDR:US$0.6290.6460.6500.644
Financial indicators
¥ 3-month money market rate0.850.380.300.63
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate2.180.260.551.50
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)97.762.078.073.0
Coffee (robusta; US cents/lb)105.274.668.866.8
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms)29.5-20.62.0-3.0
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)-5.1-25.631.50.6
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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The global economy, which had its worst performance for decades in 2009, will recover slowly, and growth is forecast at 3.7% in 2010 before falling to 3.5% in 2011 as the effects of government stimulus packages wear off. The EU27-an important trading partner-is expected to fare worse, growing by a lacklustre 0.9% in 2010 and 1.1% in 2011. The world supply of coffee is expected to rise more quickly than demand over the forecast period. The price of robusta, Uganda's main coffee export, is therefore forecast to drop to an average of 68 US cents/lb in 2010-11. Oil prices have begun to pick up but are well below their peak in 2008; dated Brent Blend is forecast to rise to US$78/barrel in 2010 before easing to US$73/b in 2011, which will lower Uganda's import costs.

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