Country Report Kenya January 2011

The political scene: Mr Kenyatta is unlikely to bid for presidency at 2102 election

Unless the ICC drops the case there seems little doubt that the legal process will deliver a serious blow to the political ambitions of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, who were both eyeing a bid for the presidency at the 2012 election. Even if they are found to be innocent, the verdict may not be delivered until after the poll (currently due in August 2012). For this reason, the two men's supporters accuse the ICC of being politically motivated, but the political fall-out is simply a by-product of the ICC's actions, not the prime motivation. There is a risk of fresh violence now that the names have been revealed, but the prosecutor's recommendation for summonses, rather than warrants, may help to contain tensions. The political elite is nervous but ordinary Kenyans appear to support the legal process, with 85% backing the ICC, according to a recent local opinion poll. The naming of suspects and a possible trial could be cathartic, bringing Kenya's culture of impunity closer to an end. It would also make it harder for Kenya to continue resisting the establishment of a special local tribunal to deal with numerous lower-level offenders.

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