Forecast summary | ||||||
(% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
2010a | 2011b | 2012b | 2013b | 2014b | 2015b | |
Real GDP growth | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
Gross agricultural production growth | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Consumer price inflation (av) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 4.1 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
Lending rate (av) | 14.5 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 10.5 |
Government balance (% of GDP)c | -7.0 | -7.0 | -6.3 | -5.7 | -5.0 | -4.6 |
Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 5.2 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 8.4 |
Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 10.6 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 14.0 |
Current-account balance (US$ bn) | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.6 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -5.5 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -3.3 | -2.7 | -2.2 |
External debt (end-period; US$ bn) | 8.0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.4 |
Exchange rate KSh:US$ (av) | 79.22 | 81.50 | 83.50 | 85.75 | 85.65 | 85.00 |
Exchange rate KSh:US$ (end-period) | 80.30 | 82.00 | 84.00 | 86.80 | 86.00 | 86.00 |
Exchange rate KSh:¥100 (av) | 90.03 | 98.90 | 101.35 | 105.86 | 104.29 | 101.80 |
Exchange rate KSh:€ (end-period) | 107.20 | 98.40 | 99.96 | 101.56 | 100.19 | 101.00 |
a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Fiscal year. |
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