Inflation-as measured by the revamped CPI-climbed to 3.8% year on year in November (from a revised 3.2% in October, a multi-year low) owing to rising food and fuel prices. Inflation was subdued throughout most of 2010 as better rainfall kept food and electricity prices in check and because of deep cuts in telecoms tariffs, but these dampening factors will fade. The new CPI, introduced in February, increases the number of categories and goods and employs new weightings based on the latest household spending data. This will give a more accurate measure of inflation, but the KNBS has not yet aligned past data with the new format, making comparisons difficult. The new CPI basket cuts the weighting for food from 50% to 36%, which will tend to reduce price volatility in future. However, food price inflation climbed to 6.7% in November, driven by global trends, and will add to price pressure in the coming months. Inflation, after averaging about 3.9% in 2010, will climb to 5.7% in 2011 as demand growth quickens and food and fuel prices rise. We expect inflation to move within a 5.5-6% range in 2012-15, spurred by faster GDP growth, higher electricity prices and wage increases, although the revision of the CPI, prudent monetary policies, efficiency gains and more stable global commodity prices will help to keep inflation within tolerable bounds. The weather-and, hence, farm production-will remain a key variable.