Country Report Kenya January 2011

Outlook for 2011-155: Fiscal policy

The government will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy in 2010-12, to boost economic growth, but will embrace gradual consolidation in 2013-15 to help to keep debts in check. Kenya's new budget for fiscal year 2010/11 (July-June) proposes another large deficit-equivalent to 6.8% of GDP-as the government persists with fiscal stimulus, geared mainly towards capital spending, to encourage growth. Domestic borrowing will remain the main source of financing in 2010/11 (and throughout the forecast period), although the government will launch a long-delayed debut sovereign bond-when the global financial climate improves-and seek additional concessional lending from donors. If donor funds are not forthcoming, earnings from privatisation, which are not factored into the current budget, may provide some relief. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the government to retain a loose stance in 2011/12, to support growth and development, and to run a budget deficit of 7% of GDP. This will lift the public debt burden above 50% of GDP, although that level is not excessive in a global context. The government will thereafter embrace gradual consolidation, helped by stronger revenue growth, which will trim the budget deficit to less than 5% of GDP by the end of the forecast period.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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